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The importance of inter-model comparisons to inform robust decision-making: the example of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance

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Enhancing understanding of climate policy impacts and decision-making through inter-modal comparisons.

The IRENCGE-DF and GEEM models were employed to assess the economic impact of a gradual carbon tax increase to reduce emissions by 35% over 6 years by 2030. Despite differences in model design, both models provided similar qualitative and quantitative results, such as predicting decreases in GDP, consumption, and labor (though with slight quantitative disparities). However, each model offers unique insights: IRENCGE-DF predicts increased distributional inequalities, a shift from high- to low-emission industries, and a greater share of renewables in the energy mix, while GEEM emphasizes more severe short-term economic effects due to forward-looking behavior and New Keynesian elements (e.g., imperfect competition and price-setting frictions). This emphasizes how the two models can complement each other, providing a more comprehensive analysis of policy development.

Key Messages

  • IRENCGE-DF and GEEM complement each other, providing a detailed analysis of distributional effects and sectoral impacts for the former, and macroeconomic fluctuations, and short- and long-term policy impacts on overall economic stability and growth for the latter.
  • Integrating the strengths of both models provides a robust framework to understand the trade-offs and synergies of different climate mitigation strategies, supporting more effective policy design and implementation.
  • Ministries of Finance should consider integrating both CGE and DSGE models to capture a fuller range of economic and distributional impacts from climate policies.