Morocco’s Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF) is mobilizing and coordinating national and international resources to advance economic modeling tools and expertise to assess the impact mechanisms between climate change and the national economy.
The DEPF is adapting various models (including the MIMPAS model, the GEMMES and LPJML, and LEAP models) to Morocco’s agricultural and economic conditions, to enhance its capacity to forecast economic outcomes under various climate scenarios, support the green budgetary transition, and evaluate the macroeconomic effects of long-term low-carbon strategies including carbon taxes and subsidies.
Name: MIMPAS (Integrated macroeconomic model for projection and simulation analysis)
Type: IAM
Geographical scope: Morocco
Description: This model is paired with a regionalized agricultural model to simulate the agricultural production account, with quantity/price distinction, to understand the impact of droughts on the macroeconomic framework.
Questions to be answered/variables considered:
- The model simulates good, bad, and average agricultural seasons (conducted with annual frequency) to understand the macroeconomic impacts of climatic hazards, particularly for cereals, livestock, and other crops.
- Enables analysis of changes in agricultural value added on GDP balance, employment, prices, trade balance, and public finances.
Limitations: The tool is not based on physical modeling of climate scenarios.
Name: GEMMES-Morocco Project
Type: Linked models
Documentation: Project description
Institutions: Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts and the French Development Agency, in collaboration with the General Directorate of Meteorology, the Water Research and Planning Directorate of the Ministry of Equipment and Water, the AAA Initiative Foundation, and the Mediterranean Institute of Biodiversity and Marine Ecology.
Description: This project combines the GEMMES and LPJML models to analyze the impacts of different climate scenarios on the Moroccan economy by 2050 via the agricultural sector.
Variables considered: The model estimates future changes in water resources and crop production, assesses the economic impacts of water stress and climate change, and explores adaptation and resilience strategies.
Use:
- Studies: The GEMMES-Morocco project: climate, hydrology, agriculture and macroeconomics
- Policy briefs: ‘Morocco facing climate change: situation, impacts and response policies in the water and agriculture sectors’; ‘The Moroccan economy facing the challenges of climate change: impact scenarios by 2050 and adaptation policies’
- Presentation: At COP26 in Glasgow, 2021
Name: GEMMES and LEAP
Institutions: Morocco’s Department of Sustainable Development; French Development Agency
Description: An adaptation of the GEMMES model using the Stockholm Environment Institute’s LEAP technicaleconomic sector model to assess the macrofinancial and social impacts of low-carbon development pathways by 2050.
Variables considered: The model considers the consumption, production, and extraction of energy resources across all sectors of the economy, plus the sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions from energy and nonenergy sectors.