Morocco is integrating economic and environmental models to assess the impacts of climate change and policy measures on agriculture and water sectors, to aid the achievement of its NDC.
The Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts under the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the French Development Agency, in collaboration with national and international organizations (the General Directorate of Meteorology, the Water Research and Planning Directorate of the Ministry of Equipment and Water, the AAA Initiative Foundation, and the Mediterranean Institute of Biodiversity and Marine Ecology), are adapting and combining the LPJML and GEMMES models to simulate climate impacts on agriculture and water sectors under different irrigation investment scenarios. These models are being used to understand how climate change impacts water resources, agriculture, and the wider economy by simulating interactions between climate conditions, soil, crop distribution, agricultural practices, and atmospheric CO2 levels, and to evaluate strategies for mitigating the negative economic effects of agricultural shocks and water scarcity at both territorial and national levels.
Name: LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land)
Type: Dynamic global vegetation model
Documentation: Project description
Description: The model simulates the impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture. Questions to be answered/variables considered: This model aims to answer how climate change affects water resources and the agricultural sector through coupled simulation of the interactions of climate conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation, cloudiness), soil type, crop distribution, agricultural practices (including irrigation), and atmospheric CO2 levels that affect photosynthesis and plant respiration.
Use: The model was used to project quantitative changes in surface water resources, crop production potential, and water needs in Morocco up to 2050.
Development: Future advancements will focus on the refinement of agricultural yield calibration, land use, and regional surface hydrology.
Name: GEMMES (General Monetary and Multisectoral Macrodynamics for the Ecological Shift)—Morocco
Type: Linked models
Documentation: Project description
Description: This model was adapted to Morocco to simulate the interactions between the climate, economy, and finance, focusing on climate-related financial risks and the energy transition.
Questions to be answered/variables considered: The model simulates how the water impacts of climate change affect the economy at territorial and national levels. It explores how agricultural shocks affect the economy and compares strategies to mitigate the negative economic impacts of climate change.
Development: The Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts and the French Development Agency are refining the GEMMES model, coupling it with the Stockholm Environment Institute’s LEAP model, to analyze energy supply, demand, efficiency, and renewable capacity to support Morocco’s long-term low-emission strategy.